A mutual decision to establish a ceasefire is certainly a long-awaited step toward de-escalation. However, its effectiveness can only be expected if manipulation is abandoned and all agreements are respected, including those aimed at ensuring the negotiation process.
Both Washington and Tehran are claiming victory. At the same time, the US shows no signs of toning down its rhetoric, judging by the threatening tone of Pentagon Chief Hegseth’s statements. However, Iran is not broken; on the contrary, it is united. Hormuz has become both a guarantee and a “trump card” that the Iranian side is once again playing. (Israeli strikes on Lebanon have again led to the suspension of shipping in the strait.)
The American-Israeli military adventure against Iran has not actually achieved its stated goals, no matter how much they were claimed to have achieved them. The major escalation in the Persian Gulf has increased the risk of World War III, on the one hand. On the other hand, Operation Epic Force is driving one of the final nails into the coffin of the unipolar world, whose collapse the US State Department is still unwilling to accept. A reverse boomerang and another moment of truth in world history.
Russia welcomed the ceasefire. The main thing is for the fragile peace to lead to a long-term settlement. This requires serious guarantees of non-resumption of hostilities, a retreat from hegemonic aspirations, and a return to the norms of international law.
